FICC Focus

With repo markets functioning smoothly but major structural changes approaching, investors are focused on funding conditions, Federal Reserve liquidity and the shift to mandatory Treasury clearing. Andrew Lazar, head of sales at Buckler Securities, joins Bloomberg Intelligence interest rate strategists Ira Jersey and Will Hoffman to discuss these issues on this Macro Matters edition of the FICC Focus podcast. Lazar explains why softer demand for leverage has helped keep repo conditions calm, how Fed reserve-management purchases can provide liquidity during periods of stress and why central clearing could raise costs without ending Treasury basis trades. The group also discusses the Fed’s rate outlook, Chairman Kevin Warsh’s shifting communications strategy and why Lazar sees scope for long-dated Treasury yields to decline if geopolitical and energy pressures ease. The Macro Matters podcast is part of BI’s FICC Focus series.

Global credit markets have stayed relatively calm through wars and sovereign crises like the one in France, despite swings in rates, making strategic insights essential. In this episode of the Credit Crunch podcast, Mahesh Bhimalingam, Bloomberg Intelligence’s global head of credit strategy, hosts BI’s global credit strategy team to discuss key research, data and views from around the world. Tim Tan and Jason Lee (Asia), Reto Bachmann (structured credit), Heema Patel (Europe) and Alice Zhou (US) share their outlooks and the key themes shaping their regions. Access their research on the Bloomberg Terminal at BI STRTA, BI STRTE and BI STRTN. The Credit Crunch podcast is part of BI’s FICC Focus series. Listen on Apple Podcasts and Spotify.

Looking across 200 years of history to the AI-driven energy boom, there’s a case that munis haven’t looked this good in a long time. On this episode of Masters of the Muniverse, Matt Gastall, head of municipal research and strategy at Bloomberg Intelligence, sits down with Mark Schmidt, CFA, executive director and head of municipal strategy and research at Morgan Stanley, for a fast-paced tour of today’s municipal bond market. Masters of the Muniverse is part of BI’s FICC Focus series.

In this episode of the FX Moment podcast, recorded in Hong Kong, Bloomberg Intelligence Chief FX Strategist Audrey Childe-Freeman and Gary Ng, Senior Economist at Natixis CIB in Hong Kong, discuss Asia FX in 4Q and into 2027, with a focus on the yuan and the yen. The bottom line is that structural yuan bulls were validated into 4Q and may extend into 2027, with the 6.65 dollar-yuan reference value credible in the near to mid-term. This is mainly about a yuan-supportive balance of payments position and yuan appeal on global diversification strategies, while relative yield differentials are less of a driver for that currency pair. On the yen and on dollar-yen in particular, Gary and Audrey touched on the mixed drivers and considerations and on what may be the the best avenue to sustained yen strength beyond a turn in the US dollar.The FX Moment podcast is part of BI’s FICC Focus series. Listen to this episode on Apple Podcasts and Spotify.

With nominal GDP running above 6% year to date and earnings season kicking off, Mike Medeiros, macro strategist at Wellington Management, explains why corporate profitability has been well-supported and why that support may be fading, in his return to the Macro Matters edition of the FICC Focus podcast, hosted by Ira Jersey, chief interest-rate strategist for Bloomberg Intelligence. The wide-ranging discussion on the macro backdrop heading into 4Q and beyond covers the Fed’s hiking cycle under Chairman Kevin Warsh, the shift away from forward guidance and why current policy rates may still not be sufficiently restrictive to bring core inflation sustainably back to 2%. Mike and Ira also dig into the Treasury-market selloff — now potentially in the “eighth inning” — tighter financial conditions and what below-trend growth in 2027 could mean for risk assets. The episode also tackles the upcoming midterm elections, implications for AI regulation and the data-center build-out, the fiscal drag from the One Big Beautiful Act and long-term debt sustainability concerns. Finally, Mike shares his medium-term asset allocation views, making the case for real assets over financial assets amid structurally higher rates. The Macro Matters podcast is part of BI’s FICC Focus series.

“Even when you think you’ve patched the last three holes ... what does it matter that you actually blocked one, two, and three if the company can still get there through route four?” observes Alex Diaz-Matos, Bloomberg Intelligence senior covenant analyst, on the game of whack-a-mole between creditors and borrowers in today’s bloated credit agreements. In this episode of the State of Distressed Debt podcast, Bloomberg Intelligence analysts Phil Brendel and Negisa Balluku sit down with Alex to explore the cutthroat tactics in liability management exercises and how Aston Martin, Electronic Arts, Xerox and Optimum Communications have used IP, joint ventures and novel entity structures to raise financing and circumvent seemingly ironclad lender protections. The conversation also breaks down the unintended consequences of increasingly precise drafting, the limits of non-unanimous covenant protections and how the distressed market has evolved since Serta turned theoretical vulnerabilities into harsh reality. The podcast concludes (52:34) with Phil and Negisa providing a roundup of their latest distressed credit research on Optimum Communications, Dish Wireless, Hughes Satellite Systems and Getty Images.

With the Federal Reserve confronting persistent inflation, strong demand and questions about how much further rates may need to rise, investors are also watching for potentially significant changes to the central bank’s communications and balance-sheet framework. Richard Clarida, Pacific Investment Management Co. managing director and global economic advisor and former Federal Reserve vice chair, joins Bloomberg Intelligence interest-rate strategists Ira Jersey and Will Hoffman to discuss that and more on this Macro Matters edition of the FICC Focus podcast. Clarida explains why Kevin Warsh inherited an FOMC that had already shifted sharply toward tighter policy, why eliminating formal forward guidance doesn’t mean Fed officials will stop signaling their views and why the September rate increase reflected a committee increasingly focused on bringing inflation back to 2%. The group also discusses how the Fed could shrink its balance sheet while retaining an ample-reserves regime, whether its portfolio should move toward a barbell of Treasury bills and longer-dated securities and the potential role for temporary open-market operations. They close with a discussion of how AI-related capital spending is making the economy less interest-rate sensitive and why the Fed may ultimately need to tighten further if strong demand doesn’t moderate on its own. The Macro Matters podcast is part of BI’s FICC Focus series.

Credit and high yield are in the red for the year after a two-month selloff. Will 4Q deliver gains or more losses, and why? On this episode of the Credit Crunch podcast, Mahesh Bhimalingam, Bloomberg Intelligence global head of credit strategy, discusses the results of the BI 4Q26 Investor Survey and the market outlook with George Flynn, high-yield portfolio manager at New Capital, EFG International. They cover valuations and central bank actions, along with distress and default rates. The podcast also examines survey results on investor positioning, sentiment, key return drivers, supply forecasts and relative value across asset classes (high grade vs. junk), geographies (Europe vs. US), ratings and sectors.

Asset allocators should prepare for continued bouts of volatility, as negative asymmetry in market fundamentals, valuations and technicals is causing investors to trim equity exposure and move up the capital stack. Trevor Slaven, Global Head of Asset Allocation and Multi-Asset Portfolio Solutions at Barings, joins Damian Sassower, Bloomberg Intelligence’s Chief EM Fixed Income Strategist, to assess the AI-induced transformation taking place across the global economy. Slaven and Sassower explore the impact of IT-related capital expenditure on labor markets, inflation expectations and corporate margins, with high-beta asset classes exposed to greater downside risk. Listen to this episode on Apple Podcasts and Spotify.

With global bond yields at multi-decade highs and markets pricing further central-bank tightening, investors are reassessing the relative value of rates, equities and currencies. Christian Lawrence, chief cross-asset strategist at Rabobank, joins Bloomberg Intelligence chief US interest rate strategist Ira Jersey to discuss that and more on this Macro Matters edition of the FICC Focus podcast. Lawrence argues that the recent surge in Treasury yields has been driven more by real rates and strong growth than by rising inflation expectations, and says the latest move increasingly resembles a pain trade that could partially reverse. The two discuss how higher yields are already weighing on market breadth beneath equity indexes, why large-cap companies with strong free cash flow may remain better positioned and how changing hedge ratios and interest-rate differentials are influencing the dollar. They also examine whether markets are pricing too many rate hikes from the Federal Reserve and other major central banks, the global trend toward looser fiscal policy and why relative-value trades may offer better opportunities than outright directional bets while volatility remains elevated. The Macro Matters podcast is part of BI’s FICC Focus series.

“You want to buy the security based on this yield, but you have to protect against the risks,” says Mike Vranos, CEO and founder of Ellington Management Group. “What you see is many investors just ignore the option they’re short or, in the extreme example, they ignore the left tail risk,” Vranos adds when discussing how to deliver alpha in securitized products. He joins Bloomberg Intelligence’s Erica Adelberg and Noel Hebert on the latest episode of Credit Crunch to discuss innovation in the mortgage-backed market during his time at Kidder Peabody and later at Ellington, the rise of non-qualified mortgages and the merits of CLO equity. The three discuss the role of insurance capital, investment discipline and where value resides in the current landscape, before closing on the importance of philanthropy. The Credit Crunch podcast is part of BI’s FICC Focus series.

“’Co-op first, ask questions later’ is down a bit from its peak, though not dead,” observes John Sobolewski, Global Chair of Latham & Watkins’ Liability Management Practice, as he addresses the latest dynamic between debtors and lenders in distressed situations. In this episode, Bloomberg Intelligence analysts Negisa Balluku and Phil Brendel sit down with John to explore the current state of Liability Management Exercises (LMEs) and why stakeholders are ultimately motivated to find negotiated resolutions over value-destroying, multiyear litigation. The conversation unpacks the delicate mechanics of these negotiations, including why repeat market players will give minority holdouts a fair shake but “hold the line” against nuisance value to avoid giving an inch that turns into a yard. John also breaks down the massive bid-ask spreads — think “Grand Canyon” — between debtors and creditors, why debt funds continue to resist taking back equity, and the software sector’s growing interest in LM solutions. The podcast concludes (53:10) with BI’s Noel Hebert joining Negisa and Phil for a roundup of their latest research on Air Baltic, QVC, DISH DBS, DISH Wireless, Hughes Satellite Systems, Telesat, and Xerox. The State of Distressed Debt podcast is part of BI’s FICC Focus series. Listen on Apple Podcasts and Spotify.

With AI investment accelerating, energy costs rising and Treasury yields pushing to multi-decade highs, investors are confronting a market where few assets look obviously cheap. Jimmy Chang, chief investment officer of Rockefeller Global Family Office, joins Bloomberg Intelligence chief US interest rate strategist Ira Jersey to discuss that and more on this Macro Matters edition of the FICC Focus podcast. Chang explains how the extraordinary scale of AI-related capital spending is supporting economic growth while also adding inflation pressure through shortages of power, semiconductors and other inputs. The two discuss why 10-year Treasury yields above 5% may be consistent with strong nominal growth, when extending duration could become attractive and how additional Federal Reserve tightening might ultimately slow the economy. They also examine the record amount of cash in money-market funds, why Chang doesn’t view it simply as “dry powder” and how higher yields are reinforcing a K-shaped economy. The episode closes with a longer-term discussion of AI investment, potential overcapacity, power demand and why family-office portfolios may benefit from diversification across bonds, precious metals and other hard assets. The Macro Matters podcast is part of BI’s FICC Focus series.

With the Federal Reserve beginning a new tightening cycle and markets pricing additional rate increases, investors are reassessing where the Treasury yield curve may be headed next. Ira Jersey, Bloomberg Intelligence chief US interest-rate strategist, discusses this and more in a solo Macro Matters edition of the FICC Focus podcast. Jersey explains why Chairman Kevin Warsh’s latest press conference offered a clearer view of the Fed’s reaction function, with resilient economic growth allowing policymakers to focus more directly on above-target inflation. Jersey outlines why BI expects another 50 bps of tightening, though likely at a slower pace than markets currently price, and examines how previous Fed cycles suggest further curve flattening could follow the first hike. Jersey also discusses why two- to five-year Treasuries may offer attractive carry and downside protection as the curve flattens, how inflation expectations will influence the Fed’s next moves and why solid nominal growth continues to support relatively high long-term Treasury yields. The Macro Matters podcast is part of BI’s FICC Focus series.

“We want to encourage risk-taking, but we want to encourage the right type of risk-taking, which is informed risk-taking,” says Colin Purdie, global CIO of public markets for Manulife Investment Management. In this episode of Credit Crunch, Purdie joins Bloomberg Intelligence’s Noel Hebert to discuss portfolio construction and decentralized decision-making within a global platform. The two explore the material growth in equity and credit issuance to fund data centers, where the benefits of AI may accrue, why physical climate risk could be mispriced and where to find relative value. Purdie also explains why the 2022 gilt crisis was an important lesson, offers thoughts on whether de-dollarization is done or delayed, and speaks to the source of demand for corporate new issuance and the potential effect of a less-transparent Federal Reserve. The Credit Crunch podcast is part of BI’s FICC Focus series. Listen on Apple Podcasts and Spotify.

In this episode of the FX Moment podcast, Bloomberg Intelligence Chief FX Strategist Audrey Childe-Freeman talks to BI’s Chief Interest Rate Strategist Ira Jersey for a flavor on what to expect from the Fed at the Sept. 16 FOMC Meeting. The hotter-than-expected August CPI data is boosting the case for September policy action, though that isn’t a done deal and there’s still uncertainty as to what to expect on policy messaging and on whether any September action would mark the beginning of a tightening cycle or whether it’s more about removing some of 2025’s policy easing. The implications for the bond market and the dollar are different depending on the scenario that unfolds. Ira and Audrey also discuss the implications that a no-change policy outcome would have on the bond market and the dollar, via the cyclical and structural channels. Listen to this episode on Apple Podcasts and Spotify.

The angst, consternation and hand-wringing over debt levels may be a contrarian indicator that rate markets are oversold, says Brendan Murphy, North American head of fixed income at Insight Investment Management. Murphy joins Bloomberg Intelligence chief US interest rate strategist Ira Jersey on this Macro Matters edition of the FICC Focus podcast to discuss the outlook for fixed income. Murphy attributes elevated yields to a stronger macro backdrop, persistent inflation uncertainty, the Fed leadership shift to Chair Kevin Warsh and fiscal concerns amplified by heavy AI-driven corporate issuance. He outlines Insight Investment’s base case that the Fed holds at its upcoming meeting, favors the five-year part of the curve and prefers non-agency securitized credit and agency mortgages over investment grade on valuation grounds. The episode closes with Murphy’s contrarian view that widespread market pessimism may signal a fixed-income buying opportunity, with high-quality portfolios now yielding around 6%, competitive with long-run equity return expectations. The Macro Matters podcast is part of BI’s FICC Focus series.

Cross-asset volatility has declined over summer even though the path of resistance for yields has been higher. In this edition of the All Options Considered podcast, BI’s Chief Global Derivatives Strategist Tanvir Sandhu gives an update on macro dynamics, bond market volatility, yen, S&P 500 dispersion strategies and the fat tails on gas prices.

Emerging market equities have outperformed the S&P 500 by over 14% over the past year, as investors take advantage of attractive valuations, falling currency volatility and a more resilient macroeconomic backdrop. Malcolm Dorson, Senior EM Portfolio Manager and Head of the Active Investment Team at Global X, joins Damian Sassower, Bloomberg Intelligence’s chief EM fixed income strategist, to assess the durability of thematic and idiosyncratic investment opportunities across the EM equity universe. Dorson and Sassower assess relative performance, foreign positioning and fund flows as institutional investors exhibit greater interest in moving down the EM capital structure.

With the latest energy shock pushing UK inflation higher while economic growth remains subdued, investors are questioning whether markets have priced too much Bank of England tightening. Jack Meaning, UK chief economist at Barclays, joins Bloomberg Intelligence chief US interest rate strategist Ira Jersey to discuss that and more on this Macro Matters edition of the FICC Focus podcast. Meaning explains why Barclays expects inflation to climb above 3% in the second half of 2026 but sees little evidence of the wage or second-round effects that would make the increase durable. The two discuss why keeping Bank Rate at 3.75% already represents a meaningful tightening relative to earlier market expectations and how restrictive financing conditions and labor-market slack are weighing on growth. They also explore whether improving investment intentions — including spending tied to artificial intelligence — can provide support. The conversation examines Brexit’s lingering impact, the UK’s difficult fiscal choices and why Barclays expects the Bank of England to remain on hold this year before inflation moves back toward target in 2027. The episode concludes with a look at the central bank’s upcoming quantitative-tightening decision and the debate over continuing active gilt sales.

Emerging market fund flows are accelerating as credit fundamentals continue to improve amid historically loose financial conditions, wide real yields and deteriorating US dollar demand. Genna Lozovsky, managing principal and chief investment officer of Sandglass Capital Management, joins Damian Sassower, Bloomberg Intelligence’s chief EM fixed income strategist, to share his outlook for special situations and distressed EM credit amid a historically tight spread environment. Lozovsky and Sassower focus on opportunities in off-the-run EM growth, distressed corporates and speculative-grade sovereign debt.

With US growth holding up and inflation still running above target, investors are weighing whether the Federal Reserve needs to tighten policy further or can afford to stay on hold. Drew Matus, chief market strategist at MetLife Investment Management, joins Bloomberg Intelligence chief US interest-rate strategist Ira Jersey to discuss this and more on this Macro Matters edition of the FICC Focus podcast. Matus argues that rate hikes would do little to address the forces currently supporting inflation while risking unnecessary damage to the broader economy, and explains why he expects the Fed to remain on hold. The two also discuss how the AI investment boom and household wealth effects are supporting US growth, why Matus sees AI as a potential source of job creation and productivity gains, and where those benefits could create opportunities across emerging markets and Japan. They also examine global fixed-income valuations, geopolitical and oil-market risks and why clearer rules governing the relationship between the Treasury and Fed — including the composition and size of the central bank’s balance sheet — could ultimately reduce uncertainty for markets. The Macro Matters podcast is part of BI’s FICC Focus series.

Global credit markets have stayed relatively calm through war and peace, despite swings in the rates markets, making strategic insights essential. In this episode of the Credit Crunch podcast, Mahesh Bhimalingam, Bloomberg Intelligence’s global head of credit strategy, hosts our global team to discuss key research, data and views from around the world. Tim Tan and Jason Lee in Asia, Reto Bachmann from structured credit, Heema Patel in Europe and Alice Zhou in the US share their outlooks and the key themes shaping their regions. Access their research on the Bloomberg Terminal at BI STRTA, BI STRTE and BI STRTN.

To demonstrate how the modern bankruptcy system often feels prepackaged and inevitable, Brown Rudnick’s Robert Stark compares the current state of Chapter 11 to a trip to the local bureaucracy: “We could do everything that is being done now by setting up bankruptcy at a DMV, go cut your deal in the back room, bring your $60 check, stand in line, and get a rubber stamp by the DMV.” Stark and Houlihan Lokey’s Saul Burian join Bloomberg Intelligence analysts Negisa Balluku and Phil Brendel to explore the increasing friction in today’s bankruptcy courts, including the consequences of judge-led mediation, the rise of aggressive DIP financing features like roll-ups and post-reorg equity packages, and the debate over the true neutrality of “independent” directors. The podcast concludes with a look at the restructuring outlook and a discussion about the surprising return of “dumb frauds” catching major Wall Street institutions off guard. Cases mentioned include First Brands Group, Multi-Color Corp., Del Monte, J&J, BlockFi, 3M and American Tire.

With the Federal Reserve leaning toward a smaller balance sheet and several year-end funding pressures approaching, investors may need to pay closer attention to liquidity and the cost of financing leveraged positions. E.G. Fisher, chief investment officer at Mariner Investment Group, joins Bloomberg Intelligence chief US interest rate strategist Ira Jersey to discuss that and more on this Macro Matters edition of the FICC Focus podcast. Fisher explains why market liquidity remains strong but funding liquidity could become more challenging as bank reserves decline, the Treasury General Account grows and major balance-sheet reporting dates approach. The two discuss whether Treasury lending of TGA balances could ease repo pressures, how Chair Kevin Warsh’s preference for a smaller Fed balance sheet may affect funding markets and why recent Treasury buybacks at the long end are only a partial response to rising yields and growing debt. They also examine relative-value opportunities across rates and credit, including increased dispersion, record corporate issuance tied to the AI build-out and how steepening credit curves are creating opportunities for arbitrage investors. The Macro Matters podcast is part of BI’s FICC Focus series.

Municipal separately managed accounts (SMAs) have exploded 16-fold in market share, becoming a predominant investment vehicle in the post-global financial crisis world, with tight spreads and low ratios making alpha elusive. In this episode of Masters of the Muniverse, Bloomberg Intelligence’s new head of municipal research and strategy, Matthew Gastall, sits down with two guests from JPMorgan, the world’s second-largest SMA provider. Dan Freise, senior portfolio manager at J.P. Morgan Asset Management, and Paul Jacobson, head of municipal strategy at J.P. Morgan Private Bank, unpack active trading strategies, high-conviction sector positioning, and the critical market risks on their radar. Masters of the Muniverse is part of BI’s FICC Focus series.

“The pace and trajectory of private-market growth has simply outpaced the growth of bank balance sheets,” says Dadong Yan, head of Barings Portfolio Finance, explaining the success of the asset class and the opportunities that lie ahead. In this episode of Credit Crunch, Yan joins Bloomberg Intelligence’s Noel Hebert to discuss the evolution of portfolio finance from a bank-dominated lending business to an institutional investment opportunity, and how institutional capital helps to fill the financing gap created in private markets. The two talk about the importance of disciplined underwriting, diversification and structural protections, while Yan argues that controlling lender positions, proprietary data and rigorous risk management — not simply yield — will determine long-term success in the asset class. The Credit Crunch podcast is part of BI’s FICC Focus series.

Cooling inflation and a softer labor market are giving the Federal Reserve more room to remain patient, even as investors debate whether Kevin Warsh’s Fed could still deliver another rate increase. Chris Hodge, chief economist at Natixis, joins Bloomberg Intelligence interest rate strategists Ira Jersey and Will Hoffman to discuss this and more on this Macro Matters edition of the FICC Focus podcast. Hodge explains why recent CPI and PPI data reinforce his view that disinflation remains intact, with tariff effects largely having passed through, housing pressures moderating and wage growth consistent with inflation moving closer to the Fed’s target. The group discusses why Natixis expects the Fed to remain on an extended hold, how recent weakness in the labor market could increase policymakers’ tolerance for above-target inflation and what changes may emerge from Warsh’s reviews of the central bank’s inflation framework and data. They also examine the housing outlook, the approaching midterm elections and why divided government may constrain major fiscal legislation without materially changing the longer-term US deficit trajectory. The Macro Matters podcast is part of BI’s FICC Focus series.

Rates and the new Fed are at the forefront of market headlines amid wide government bond yields. In this episode of the Credit Crunch podcast, host Mahesh Bhimalingam, Bloomberg Intelligence’s global head of credit strategy, discusses how credit remains a safe haven in every crisis with Mohammed Kazmi, senior portfolio manager at Union Bancaire Privée. They dig deep into the new Fed policy, its operational changes and Fedspeak, and the impact on the yield curve and credit. They also discuss the impact of nominal growth on credit quality and defaults, why credit has been a safe haven and why that is unlikely to change in the near future. The Credit Crunch podcast is part of BI’s FICC Focus series.

South Korea has become a real-world case study in how market concentration, investor enthusiasm and leveraged ETFs can amplify volatility. In this episode, Bloomberg Intelligence’s Tanvir Sandhu, Rena Kwok and Shirley Wong examine how leveraged products can create powerful feedback loops when positioning starts to outweigh fundamentals. They unpack the mechanics of ETF rebalancing, the role of AI and semiconductor enthusiasm in Korea’s recent market swings and the implications for brokerages, fixed-income investors and broader investment themes across Asia.

“We’ve gotten a little addicted post-2008 to the Fed guiding us,” says Michael Goosay, CIO and global head of fixed income for Principal Asset Management. “I’ve been doing this a very long time to remember when... we kind of had to guess at what the Fed did.” In this episode of the Credit Crunch podcast, Goosay joins Bloomberg Intelligence’s Noel Hebert to talk about the potential implication of a less-transparent Federal Reserve, while hitting on other key areas including investment grade and high yield credit, AI-driven corporate issuance, interest rates and global capital flows. The two also discuss portfolio construction and how, despite macro uncertainty having increased, corporate fundamentals remain resilient, and how the current backdrop favors active management. Emerging markets, securitized credit and municipals are discussed in brief, as is the current relative value landscape. The Credit Crunch podcast is part of BI’s FICC Focus series.

Emerging market local-currency government debt deserves a prominent place in global fixed income portfolios, as economic fundamentals remain resilient and the US dollar remains rich. Victoria Courmes, portfolio manager on GMO’s emerging country debt team, joins Damian Sassower, Bloomberg Intelligence’s chief EM fixed income strategist, to assess the firm’s total return expectations through the second half of 2026. Courmes and Sassower identify undervalued sectors, explore alternative investment strategies and discuss the risk-return tradeoff in opportunistic frontier markets.

With the change in leadership at the Federal Reserve, investors are paying greater-than-usual attention to the outlook for short-term funding markets, money-market funds and the central bank’s balance sheet. Laurie Brignac, head of global liquidity at Invesco, joins Bloomberg Intelligence interest rate strategists Ira Jersey and Will Hoffman to discuss this and more on this Macro Matters edition of the FICC Focus podcast. Brignac explains why lending excess Treasury General Account balances into the repo market may create more operational risk than income, and why shrinking the Fed’s balance sheet would require changes to bank liquidity regulations before reserve balances can fall significantly. The group also examines whether the Fed should return to traditional temporary open-market operations, how stigma continues to limit use of standing liquidity facilities and where Invesco sees value across Treasury bills, commercial paper and ultra-short strategies. They close with a discussion of institutional and retail money-fund flows, the market’s capacity to absorb growing bill issuance and what investors should watch as the Fed’s task forces review its communications, data and balance-sheet frameworks. The Macro Matters podcast is part of BI’s FICC Focus series.

In this episode of the FX Moment podcast, Bloomberg Intelligence Chief FX Strategist Audrey Childe-Freeman and Chris Turner, head of FX strategy at ING Bank in London, discuss dollar-yen near- and mid-term dynamics. The combined shift in the dollar view following the July 29 Fed meeting, stretched long positioning and joint US-Japan FX intervention were the perfect catalysts for a sharp move lower in dollar-yen, yet the market is already questioning whether the move can be sustained. Childe-Freeman and Turner both see a risk of further joint FX intervention, which should keep dollar-yen bulls in check for now, while US economic data and the associated Fed outlook, along with the BOJ’s September policy decision and Japan’s fiscal credibility, may determine how bullish investors can be on the yen into 4Q. They also discuss non-dollar ways to express the carry trade, including via bullish Norwegian krone and Australian dollar views.

“In the US today, what you see is... capital leaving the system out of the BDCs, and that’s creating a lot of technical pressure on the market,” says Robin Doumar, founder and managing partner of Park Square Capital. “So we should see better structures, better pricing, better terms.” In this episode of the Credit Crunch podcast, Doumar joins Bloomberg Intelligence’s Noel Hebert to discuss Park Square Capital’s founding, growth and evolution since its launch in 2004, as well as its prospects for future growth. The two discuss the shift toward institutional private credit from what was once a bank-dominated European leveraged finance market, the benefits of evergreen funds and why current challenges facing large BDCs may create technical tailwinds for direct lenders more broadly. Doumar also talks about borrower selection, being willing to own an asset and the importance of culture to Park Square’s story.

Kevin Warsh’s new communications approach may be creating more uncertainty for markets, not less. Anna Wong, Bloomberg Economics chief US economist, joins Ira Jersey, Bloomberg Intelligence chief US interest-rate strategist, on this Macro Matters edition of the FICC Focus podcast. Wong discusses why Warsh’s latest press conference appeared to contribute to the selloff in long-dated Treasuries, how his reluctance to provide a clear policy framework raised questions about the Fed’s commitment to its inflation target and what changes could emerge from the central bank’s communications task force. They also examine whether the Fed could adopt Bank of England-style explanations of individual dissents, publish scenario analyses and reduce its reliance on the dot plot. Wong explains why she expects softer inflation and labor-market data to keep the Fed on hold for the rest of 2026, and how the recent rise in real yields could slow housing, industrial production and broader financial conditions. The Macro Matters podcast is part of BI’s FICC Focus series.

Emerging market equities are among this year’s top-performing asset classes globally as investors benefit from strengthening fundamentals, diminishing foreign-exchange volatility and a more resilient macroeconomic backdrop. Andrew Keiller, partner at Baillie Gifford, joins Damian Sassower, Bloomberg Intelligence’s chief EM fixed-income strategist, to assess the environment for thematic and idiosyncratic investment opportunities further down the EM capital structure. Keiller and Sassower discuss the durability of alpha generation, the formation of behavioral biases and structural inefficiencies across EM equity markets.

“There are a lot of people who would love to give away their prepayment option to get their family into the home they want,” says Adam Rilander, CIO and head of agency MBS strategies at Bright Meadow, an investment team within Mariner Investment Group. Rilander joins Bloomberg Intelligence’s Erica Adelberg and Noel Hebert on the latest episode of Credit Crunch to discuss housing affordability, potential unintended consequences of mortgage policy, investment opportunities across the MBS landscape and why higher-coupon paper may be undervalued. Rilander and Adelberg also explore the pluses and minuses of mortgage lock-ins, builder buydowns, potential Basel III impacts and why static home prices could be the market’s best medicine. The Credit Crunch podcast is part of BI’s FICC Focus series.

Oil volatility and renewed geopolitical risk have complicated what had looked like a supportive backdrop for risk assets in 2026. Brian Levitt, Invesco’s chief global market strategist, joins Ira Jersey, Bloomberg Intelligence chief US interest-rate strategist, on this Macro Matters edition of the FICC Focus podcast to discuss why he still sees a constructive medium-term outlook for markets even as the war in the Middle East has shifted the global economy from expansion toward a slower-growth phase. Levitt explains why he believes the resilience of earnings and improving market breadth have made equities healthier than they appeared in 2024, despite investors’ rotation away from some of the market’s most speculative areas. The two also discuss how higher oil prices, central-bank divergence and shifting rate expectations are affecting regional asset allocation, why Levitt expects the US would remain better positioned than Europe in a sustained energy shock and how a slower but still positive growth environment can bring leadership back to growth stocks and technology. They close with a discussion of portfolio construction, the outlook for the dollar and why Levitt remains broadly optimistic that markets are navigating a slowdown rather than the end of the cycle. The Macro Matters podcast is part of BI’s FICC Focus series.

Emerging market hard-currency credit continues to outperform most major fixed-income asset classes, yet it also offers a wide range of tactical and relative value positioning. Marcelo Assalin, head of EM debt and portfolio manager at William Blair Investment Management, joins Damian Sassower, Bloomberg Intelligence’s chief EM fixed-income strategist, to discuss positioning and performance heading into 2H26. They also examine underlying valuations, with a focus on the fundamental and technical factors that are driving institutional interest in EM fixed income.

Housing affordability, mortgage-market modernization and changing refinance behavior are reshaping the outlook for mortgage-backed securities. Erica Adelberg, Bloomberg Intelligence MBS strategist, joins Ira Jersey, BI chief US interest-rate strategist, on this edition of the FICC Focus podcast, Macro Matters. Adelberg discusses how new credit-score models and lender choice could expand mortgage access while also complicating prepayment and credit analysis for MBS investors. The two also examine how technology and artificial intelligence are changing mortgage origination and servicing, why Rocket Mortgage’s growing servicing footprint could accelerate refinancing activity and how recent housing legislation could affect supply and financing at the margin. They also discuss curve flattening, the resurgence of hybrid ARMs, relative value across agency and non-agency mortgage products and why mortgage spreads remain highly sensitive to volatility even as all-in yields look attractive.

On the face of it, index volatility has remained relatively subdued, but underneath there is significant rotation and elevated single-stock volatility. In this edition of the All Options Considered podcast, Bloomberg Intelligence chief global derivatives strategist Tanvir Sandhu is joined by Chris Murphy, co-head of derivatives strategy at Susquehanna, to discuss equity volatility and flows.The All Options Considered podcast is part of BI’s FICC Focus series. Listen to this episode on Apple Podcasts and Spotify.

“The portfolio manager’s dilemma is, ‘Do I take risk, or do I not take risk?’” Noel McElreath, senior portfolio manager for US fixed income at Xponance, tells Bloomberg Intelligence’s Noel Hebert. “And then, ‘What is excess return telling me?’” On this episode of Credit Crunch, the pair discuss the importance of disciplined credit selection, exploiting structural inefficiencies and maintaining a long-term perspective. McElreath notes that, though current market conditions are favorable, tight spreads, investor complacency and the surge in AI-related borrowing present valuation risk. The two also talk about the implications of having a new Fed chair, the importance of dealer relationships and positioning against the benchmark. The Credit Crunch podcast is part of BI’s FICC Focus series.

To illustrate how uniquely challenging the restructuring experience is for the unacquainted, C Street Advisory Group founder and CEO Jon Henes recalled a client CEO’s sentiment after complex, hardball restructuring negotiations: “Every time we walk into a room ... I feel like I’m in one big game of poker. Except you know what your cards are and you know what my cards are and you know what everybody in the room’s cards are and so do they. The only person who doesn’t know what anybody’s cards are is me ... And I’m the CEO of the company.” Henes sits down with Bloomberg Intelligence analysts Negisa Balluku and Phil Brendel to explore boardroom dynamics (including a Wellman Chapter 11 retrospective) around those “most consequential moments,” managing fast-moving leaks by controlling the narrative, the intersection of Big Law and AI, and his outlook on LMEs and bankruptcies. The podcast concludes (1:24:00) with BI’s Noel Hebert joining Negisa and Phil to discuss the latest developments in Incora, Serta, First Brands, Optimum Communications and DISH DBS. The State of Distressed Debt podcast is part of BI’s FICC Focus series.

Darrell Duffie, the Adams Distinguished Professor of Management and Finance at Stanford Graduate School of Business, joins Bloomberg Intelligence’s Ira Jersey on this Macro Matters edition of the FICC Focus podcast to discuss how much the Federal Reserve can realistically shrink its balance sheet under Chair Kevin Warsh. Duffie argues that the real constraint isn’t on the asset side, but on the liability side of the Fed’s balance sheet, especially reserve balances, paper currency and the Treasury General Account. The two examine how payment-system needs, liquidity regulations and banks’ operational demand for reserves limit how far the Fed can go and why changes to those frameworks would be necessary for any meaningful reduction in balance-sheet size. They also discuss whether the Fed should rely more on traditional temporary open-market operations, the case for shifting the asset mix toward Treasury bills and away from mortgage-backed securities, and how intraday overdrafts or liquidity-saving mechanisms could reduce reserve demand over time. The episode closes with a discussion of stablecoins, why they may increase demand for reserves at the margin and why Duffie believes they are unlikely to transform the domestic payments system anytime soon. The Macro Matters podcast is part of BI’s FICC Focus series.