The Peter Zeihan Podcast Series

We're back to Trump operating as if 1:37 AM Truth Social posts are policy, but this latest one might actually be worth discussing in the daylight...in front of actual decision-makers. Pre-order Peter's first fiction novel, Acceptable Range, and get 1 free month of Patreon access here: https://bit.ly/4yEbqxw

Both Serbia and Brazil just had major elections, but neither is likely to change much. Unfortunately, these are two countries bound by their respective geographies, and it will require much more than an election to alter their trajectories. Pre-order Peter's first fiction novel, Acceptable Range, and get 1 free month of Patreon access here: https://bit.ly/4yEbqxw

While data centers are a massive, loud, and expensive drain on critical resources, they are essential to modern life. I'm not here to argue the downsides of data centers, because everyone knows all that; however, many people see them as just AI power stations, and that's where I'm stepping in. Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihan Full Newsletter:

Oil prices are going crazy, and the current price of ~$102/barrel doesn't even account for all the additional costs incurred along the way. Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihan

Global oil markets are beginning to fragment, and with each added layer, the likelihood of returning to a global unitary price for crude gets further away. But this oil split isn't hitting everyone the same... \Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihan Full Newsletter: https://bit.ly/47jUHUi

The Ukrainians have introduced ground drones to the battlefield, attacking Russian positions and disrupting logistics. This is yet another innovation emerging from this war that is shaking up how wars will be fought. Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihan Full Newsletter: https://bit.ly/4BdwZqC

I've got a bit of a loaded question for everyone today: should the U.S. military get involved in Yemen? Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihan

The protests happening in Paris are an inevitable part of the transition that France is going through. The demographic, political, and historical pressures are making government spending increasingly difficult to sustain. Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihan Full Newsletter: https://bit.ly/4k0frYD

Concerns over Xi Jinping's health have begun to spread following his appearance in Washington. Beyond the obvious question of how Xi is doing, let's discuss the Chinese succession plan if Xi kicks it. Preorder Acceptable Range and get 1 Free month on Patreon for the Live Q&A: https://bit.ly/4z9JtNS Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihan Full Newsletter: https://bit.ly/4hZSEJT

The Chinese are laying the groundwork for a new overseas military base in Laos. What makes this so special? Well, it would be the first foreign base that China can reliably supply without heavy dependence on other countries. And it would enable greater power projection across mainland Southeast Asia. Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihan Full Newsletter: https://bit.ly/4du6iUk

The Chinese are laying the groundwork for a new overseas military base in Laos. What makes this so special? Well, it would be the first foreign base that China can reliably supply without heavy dependence on other countries. And it would enable greater power projection across mainland Southeast Asia. Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihan Full Newsletter: https://bit.ly/4du6iUk

While the fallout from the Ogallala Aquifer running dry will be rough, it's nothing in comparison to what will happen in the Punjab region of northern India. Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihan Full Newsletter: https://bit.ly/4hGM643

It's one thing for high-tech, expensive strike systems to break through defenses, but when cheap and simple drones can inflict widespread damage...that's a whole other can of worms. Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihan

A U.S. diesel ban could have reverberating consequences for the Russian energy sector, following the sustained attacks by Ukraine. Russia is now relying on places like Kazakhstan, Belarus, and India to supplement its fuel supplies. Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihan Full Newsletter: https://bit.ly/47FFZXC

U.S. troops have withdrawn from Iraq, putting an end to American military presence that began following 9/11. So, what's next for Iraq? Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihan Full Newsletter:

The Trump administration has extended an invitation to Putin to attend the G20 summit in Miami. There are several things to watch for, so let's break it down. Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihan Full Newsletter: https://bit.ly/3U1mhCA

Ukraine's new memory drones are beginning to reshape battlefield tactics. For the first time in this war, we're seeing the frontline consistently move in the other direction. Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihan

SpaceX has completed its first (mostly) successful Starship test. The ship was able to reach orbit, deploy 26 Starlink satellites, and return home. And while there were some hiccups (engine failure on launch and reentry, as well as a crash landing) along the way, this was a step in the right direction. Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihan Full Newsletter: https://bit.ly/4hfVFXq

Fossil water is ancient water trapped in deep aquifers that take millennia to recharge, rather than the standard seasonal rainfall recharge. So, once you use it...it's gone. Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihan Full Newsletter: https://bit.ly/3Tthee0

There are three major obstacles to expanding the U.S. electrical grid: generation capacity, permitting, and large power transformers (LPTs). Let's focus on LPTs today. Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihan Full Newsletter: https://bit.ly/4hNoqL6

A ban on American crude or diesel exports isn't going to improve energy security; if anything, it will reduce domestic production. The problem lies in geography. Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihan Full Newsletter: https://bit.ly/4yaixxq

The U.S. has just announced that it will remove any company or country caught servicing Iranian-owned aircraft from the U.S. dollar system. But these sanctions don't target the IRGC or regime; instead, they impact everyday Iranians in the hope of stirring up a rebellion against the regime. Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihan Full Newsletter: https://bit.ly/4d10OQA

The AI race is in full swing. China is chasing digital sovereignty, but there's a glaring hole in that plan...it doesn't have the advanced manufacturing capabilities to achieve it. Here's the real kicker: nobody does. Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihan Full Newsletter: https://bit.ly/46FmVbK

With Ukrainian attacks limiting Russian refining capacity and the Persian Gulf conflict restricting exports through Hormuz and the Red Sea, a diesel shortage is imminent. Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihan Full Newsletter: https://bit.ly/4ybp1Mr

The recent series of U.S.-Venezuela oil deals is not quite as significant as it was made out to be. Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihan Full Newsletter: https://bit.ly/4hfb6PL

Hear me out...everyone has been yelling about AI the past few days, and the reality is that everyone is probably right, but it probably doesn't really matter anyways. Let me explain. Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihan Full Newsletter: https://bit.ly/4rqwO6K

Everyone is always so worked up about bear attacks while I'm out backpacking. The problem is that people are referencing the rise in bear attacks in Japan, as if it's the same here in the U.S. The reality is that unless you come across a grizzly without your bear spray, you'll probably be just fine. Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihan Full Newsletter:

Cobalt is critical for modern batteries, but with over half of global production coming from the Democratic Republic of Congo, it represents one of the great geopolitical vulnerabilities. China controls most of the Cobalt mining in the Congo through coercive labor systems, so if China's system continues on its current path...Cobalt production will crash. Filling China's shoes in Congo is no easy feat. Foreign stabilization and oversight are difficult and aren't likely to come from Western governments. So, Cobalt supplies will collapse. Either the world will find a way forward with less Cobalt, or we'll get really good at recycling it. The scariest piece is that Cobalt isn't the only critical material that's vulnerable, so the era of easy tech advancement powered by cheap, abundant inputs is coming to an end. Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihan

The U.S. military has been seizing Iranian shadow fleet vessels at the instruction of the Trump administration. But until now, they couldn't do anything with that seized cargo. Fear not, the prize court system is here to save the day. Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihan Full Newsletter: https://bit.ly/4yD865t

As the global order breaks apart, countries and communities that can incorporate the learnings from early Rome can weather the storm much better than others. We're talking about integrating economies, infrastructure, and security. Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihan

Japan has long been a pioneer in methodologies and technologies to save society from a demographic crisis. Japan's next endeavour is developing AI-powered robots for industrial, agricultural, healthcare, and logistics applications. Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihan Full Newsletter: https://bit.ly/472ikQR

Volodymyr Zelensky’s historical legacy is still being written. Sure, he's remained highly popular as a wartime leader and would likely be reelected if elections were held tomorrow. But a lot of his legacy depends upon the outcome of the Ukraine War. Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihan Full Newsletter: https://bit.ly/4j2z1D2

We discussed the problems with the Republicans; now let's move on to the Democrats. They've got a different set of problems, but make no mistake, they are just as screwed. Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihan Full Newsletter: https://bit.ly/4Ab7tRZ

Trump has adopted a leadership style similar to that of Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin. That means power is solely concentrated around him, and the party ideology and institutional foundation have been weakened. Without Trump, the Republican Party has no life force. Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihan Full Newsletter: https://bit.ly/4hfJppF

On the whole, most presidential administrations have limited awareness of things like demographics, trade, geopolitics, and industrial policy. Naturally, government officials view things through a narrow lens corresponding to their background, such as business or academia. So, that's the baseline here. Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihan Full Newsletter: https://bit.ly/3UuDIvr

Global trade was once fragmented into many regional economies. Goods like spices traveled overland through countless intermediaries before reaching the gateway cities of Venice, Genoa, Pisa, and Amalfi. So, what can we learn from the glory days of the spice trade? Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihan Full Newsletter: https://bit.ly/4dnPf63

Project Vault, the Trump administration's initiative to stockpile critical minerals, is just a small step in the right direction. Sure, buying mineral-rich waste helps the U.S. build reserves, but it's a classic case of giving the man a fish vs. teaching him how to fish. Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihan Full Newsletter: https://bit.ly/4xOUjZt

If China and Russia are so buddy-buddy now, why don't they build pipelines across Siberia to bypass the Persian Gulf? There are more issues than I can cover in this video, but here are a couple... Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihan Full Newsletter: https://bit.ly/3SuRttr

Ukraine has created a system to determine which ships belong to the shadow fleet and which belong to one of the major companies. By sourcing ship identities, transponder data, routes, and ports from these companies, Ukraine can strike unidentified vessels with a high degree of confidence. Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihan Full Newsletter: https://bit.ly/4cs4P09

The U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) was created in the 70s as a safeguard against major disruptions in oil imports. Well, those 700 million barrels were never used for its intended purpose. Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihan Full Newsletter: https://bit.ly/4AbUQGC

While oil is still moving through the Strait of Hormuz, flows remain a fraction of pre-war levels. Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihan Full Newsletter:

You know what happens when you do exactly what the Chinese government tells you to do? You get sentenced to life in prison. That just happened to Evergrande's former chairman, and it tells you everything you need to know about China's failing real estate system. Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihan Full Newsletter: https://bit.ly/4c8Jhpi

A leaked Moscow memo stated that Russian air defenses are being concentrated around the Kremlin. This leaves the broader Moscow region, including refineries and key infrastructure, vulnerable to Ukrainian attacks. Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihan Full Newsletter: https://bit.ly/4cJ7y5m

Crippling one of the world's most deeply integrated manufacturing systems probably isn't a great idea, but here we are again. Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihan Full Newsletter: https://bit.ly/3UYvZ8M

Following the dumpster fire that was the Iran war, the U.S. is contemplating how and where to redeploy forces to the Middle East. Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihan Full Newsletter: https://bit.ly/45MUx7b